Every January, I make predictions about the video game
industry for the following year. Of course, these types of posts are no fun
unless they are revisited a year after. For today, I would like to revisit lastyear's predictions for 2015 and see if they came true. Honestly... they were
hit-or-miss. Mostly miss...
1. My first prediction was that 2015 would be The Year of
the Wii U. With many great games coming out on 2015 and whatever new great
things Nintendo was to announce, I expected that the Wii U would double its
install base. Although the Wii U sales numbers did increase, breaking the 10
million milestone in July, the end of the year numbers are nowhere close to the
16 million I had expected.
Self Assessment: Partly Correct
2. My second prediction was that Final Fantasy XV would be
the most significant game of the year. With the recent commentary from a number
of pundits this past year noting that JRPGs have grown a bit stale, I had hoped
that Final Fantasy XV would revitalize the genre and, upon its success,
embolden developers to take risks and design games whose mechanics go beyond
traditional narrative tropes and play mechanics. Alas, Final Fantasy XV's
release date was designated as 2016.
Self Assessment: Incorrect
3. I had expected that PS 4 and X1 console sales would
decrease slowly, reaching a steady low by mid year, to then pick up slightly
towards the end of the year with the holidays. Although we did see a sharp
decrease in console sales, it came much sooner than I expected, and the spike
in holiday sales was much larger than I thought it would be.
Self Assessment: Partly Correct
4. I predicted that the New 3DS would launch to customer
confusion, but that sales would pick up. This was indeed the case, although the
confusion from the consumer was less than I would have expected and sales
picked up faster than I would have expected - and they were followed by steady
growth.
Self Assessment: Partly Correct
5. I suggested that there would be a number of new 3DS
editions and that the handheld would continue to outsell other consoles. The
first part was indeed correct, with the New 3DS being released in an Animal
Crossing variant, a Monster Hunter variant, and a Zelda variant. Regarding
sales, however, I was somewhat off, with the 3DS lagging in sales behind both
the PS 4 and the X1 this year.
Self Assessment: Partly Correct
6. I predicted that Nintendo would announce a new console,
and this was indeed the case. The Nintendo NX - reportedly a
cartridge-based console - was announced
with new information leaking slowly.
Self Assessment: Spot on
7. I predicted there would be no US release of Phantasy Star
Online 2. That was correct.
I did make some other "predictions" that the
yearly series would release yet another installment, and this was indeed true,
though fully expected. And just as I expected, naysayers continued crying the
Death of Nintendo, until the Wii U broke the 10 million mark, at which point
their attitudes changed, if mildly.
Although my 2015 predictions were mostly on the
"fail" end, I am happy that a few of my wishful thoughts came to
fruition. ESO went free to play (I will be buying it sometime after I finish
planning my courses for this year), Mass Effect: Andromeda was announced at E3,
and although Final Fantasy 7 is not Final Fantasy 6, its announced remake at E3
brought many gamers (myself included) to the brink of shedding tears of joy.
With the exception of E3, 2015 was "just ok" for
mainstream games. There were a few gems that were released this year, and I
will be writing about those briefly on my next post, but by and large, 2015 can
be summarized as "Open World Games Year", with games like Witcher 3,
Fallout 4, MGS 5: Phantom Pain, and Assassin's Creed: Syndicate dominating the
charts.
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